Graphics cards: price drop in March?

Buying graphics cards from the end of 2020 until now has not been an easy task, let alone an economical one. For more than a year we have seen a complete breakdown of stock, which “magically” translated in many cases into a notable increase in units on the resale market, of course with absolutely excessive prices, as we have been telling you over and over again. throughout this period of drought.

Throughout 2021, we heard the heads of the big technology companies affirm that 2022 would be the year of recovery, or at least the beginning of it, and the latest signs finally clearly point in this direction. A good trend that, however, would still have to be maintained for several months, since at present the difference between the prices recommended by manufacturers for their graphics cards and what we find on the market is still marked, of around 50% more to be more exact.

However, a tweet from the leaker Greymon55 points in a direction that may seem surprising, since according to it, the prices of graphics cards could experience a significant drop next month. It does not quantify it, but if it qualifies as drastic, compared to the current situation, it could be pointing to the more than expected moment in which the price of graphics cards finally approaches the price recommended by their manufacturers.

Now, does this theory make sense? To assess it, we must first take into account the factors that have caused the price of graphics cards to climb the Himalayas and, for more than a year and until recently, have remained at the top. Although there are more factors, we can focus mainly on three:

  • Rise of cryptocurrencies and, therefore, of their demand by miners.
  • Scarcity of chips and, therefore, of graphics cards.
  • Increase in the resale market.

So, to consider whether what Greymon55 indicates makes sense, what we must do is consider the current situation of each of these points.

Regarding the former, 2022 is not set to be a particularly good year for cryptocurrencies. We are talking about a market so volatile that it can undoubtedly surprise us by reaching new historical highs, but the panorama points to an increasingly regulated environment, and therefore reduces the margin of action of the people who operate with them. And if the interest in cryptocurrencies decreases, the same will happen with graphics cards.

Regarding the shortage of chips, the problem is still present, but as technology companies already predicted last year, the situation maintains a trend towards normalization in recent months, which is means that manufacturers have more facilities to obtain the materials they need to produce more units and at a lower price, thus ending a problem that we already told you about a few months ago. Additionally, Intel’s arrival in the dedicated GPU market, with a forecast of four million Arc Alchemist graphics cards by 2022, clearly points to increasing availability.

And if we talk about the resellers, we can say many unpleasant things about them, but without a doubt they are aware of the market situation, and therefore they see the situation in recent weeks as tends to normalize, so their business is less profitable with each passing day, and they can reach the point of finding themselves with graphics cards that they cannot sell, because under normal conditions users prefer to buy from trusted stores and distributors, to do in this obscure secondary market.

Thus, it is possible that resellers substantially reduce their purchases, since their purchasing capacity is limited, and may be outstripped by the production capacity of manufacturers. And if we add to this that the purchase of graphics cards by miners also points towards a decrease, coinciding with a greater production capacity by manufacturers, what Greymon55 pointed out does make some sense.

However, the big question is whether the fall will be drastic, as we can read in your message, or whether, on the contrary, we will see that the drop in prices accelerates with respect to what has been seen in recent weeks, but in a way more moderate. What do you think will happen? Do you think that in a short time we will finally see that the graphics cards reach their recommended prices, that we will still have to wait a few months, or that for whatever reason, they will remain for on top of them throughout 2022?