Ingrid Betancourt loses strength in the survey conducted by the company YanHass S.A. for the media RCN Radio, RCN Television and the newspaper La República. The leader of the Oxygen Green party does not appear in the places of privilege, as the survey by the National Consulting Center, CNC, shows, in which she reached third place, behind Gustavo Petro and Rodolfo Hernández. Why this result? These are two different works and with different methodologies and that, after all, show a photograph of a specific moment.
The new survey shows a very striking fact. Behind Petro, who continues with the leader’s shirt in the intention to vote with 27%, is the Voto en Blanco option, which obtained 19%. For its part, the option Does not know/Does not respond was in fourth place with 8%.
When adding both options, they give 26%, which in practice means that there is a very important segment of undecided for elect Iván Duque’s successor.
After Petro and the blank vote, the Colombians consulted opted for Hernández. In this survey, however, a fact opposite to the measurement of the CNC occurs with him. In that one it grew two points and here it fell one. It obtained 12%, while, with the same firm, in the month of December, it scored 13%.
In their order, according to the survey carried out by YanHass, they would follow: Sergio Fajardo with 7%, Alejandro Char with 5 %, Oscar Iván Zuluaga with 4%, Juan Manuel Galán, Federico Gutiérrez and Francia Márquez with 3%, Ingrid Betancourt and Enrique Peñalosa with 2%, Carlos Amaya, Camilo Romero, Alejandro Gaviria, Aydeé Lizarazo, Jorge Robledo, Luís Pérez and David Barguil with 1%; while the candidates Airelis Guairiyú with 0.4%, Jhon Milton Rodríguez with 0.1%, Juan Fernando Cristo with 0.1% and Alfredo Saade also with 0.1% close the list of voting intentions.
The CNC photograph showed an unprecedented fact: Ingrid Betancourt, candidate of the Oxygen Green party, appeared in the group of leaders.
In this she is third in voting intention, after Petro (Pact Historical) and Hernandez. This was made after the debate organized by that magazine and EL TIEMPO Casa Editorial. In the new survey, Ingrid, however, falls to only two points.
In the CNC survey, there is also a difference in the blank vote. 11 percent of Colombians stated that they will do so through this option. Although the figure exceeds the vast majority of candidates, with the exception of Petro and Hernández, it shows a sustained decline as voters have gotten to know those who aspire to govern.
Hence, among other elements, the significance of the discussions. The same survey in September showed an intention to vote blank of 23 percent, which was maintained in October and began to fall in December to 17. Now it is at 11 percent.
The same happens with the option of ‘ none’. In September, when the pollsters showed them the long list of candidates –which at some point reached fifty–, 23 percent of the citizens said that none. That item fell one point in October, 22 percent, and had a free fall in December to 7 percent. Today it is at 6 percent.
Citizens, says the CNE survey, were consulted between January 26 and February 2. In total, 2,206 people were interviewed, in person at their homes, in 43 municipalities in all regions of Colombia.
While the fieldwork for the Yanhass survey was carried out between 25 and 31 January and with a sample of 1,225 surveys distributed in 60 municipalities in the country.
When analyzing the two surveys, Jairo Libreros, an expert in politics and communications from the Externado University of Colombia, concludes three trends.
“First, he says, Petro is the lone leader in voting intentions. He wins with his programmatic speech and his blows of opinion, and does not wear down with the criticism of the rest of the candidates. The question is, did he acquire “teflon?” “? It grows a few percentage points but it has not reached its ceiling.”
“Second, Rodolfo Hernández as second in the preferences of is staying with the center vote, especially with the young vote from the center of the political spectrum His anti-corruption speech and against the political class ica gives him electoral dividends as an anti-system candidate.”
“And third, the candidates of the coalitions of the center -Esperanza and Equipo por Colombia- do not take off, they are entangled in internal discussions, indecisions and disqualifications of Petro and Hernández , a confrontational strategy that is not only harmless, but also adds to the two leaders in the polls.”
While Andrés Segura, also a media analyst and political science expert, believes in the Betancourt phenomenon that “Ingrid had an interesting jump in one of the different scenarios that the CNC survey raised. Despite the fact that the headline that was given about her was her jump, I think it deserves further analysis, because it was just a scenario. In addition, the measurement was made, in the two surveys at the moment where all the spotlights were on her. Only in a future measurement will it be known if it was just a memory, or in fact, her controversy brought her revenues “.