This Saturday the results of the most recent survey by the National Consulting Center for the magazine Semana, which measured the intention to vote of Colombians for this year’s presidential elections.
(Also read: Survey: Federico Gutiérrez and Álex Char, head to head in his coalition)
The leader of Human Colombia Gustavo Petro leads the survey with 27%. They are followed by Rodolfo Hernández (14%), Ingrid Betancourt (7%), Sergio Fajardo (6%), Álex Char (5%), Juan Manuel Galán (4%), Óscar Iván Zuluaga (4%), Enrique Peñalosa (2 %), Alejandro Gaviria (2%) and David Barguil (1%).
Given this scenario, the survey raised the possible scenarios that could occur in a second round and pitted Petro against the other candidates. The results showed that the progressive politician would win in all of them and that those closest to him would be the former mayor of Bucaramanga Rodolfo Hernández and the former senator Ingrid Betancourt.
(Keep reading: What triggered Ingrid’s departure from the Coalition of Hope?)
Another fact to note is that the percentage of undecided people remains high in several scenarios, so it is possible that there be changes in the remainder of the campaign.
The results of this survey are released after the debate organized by EL TIEMPO and Semana in recent days with ten candidates for the Presidency.
(See also: Rodolfo Hernández denounces death threats against him)
Gustavo Petro vs. Sergio Fajardo
Gustavo Petro: 41%
Sergio Fajardo: 29%
Blank : 7%
None: 21%
Does not know, does not answer: 2%
Gustavo Petro vs. Alejandro Gaviria
Gustavo Petro: 42%
Alejandro Gaviria: 24%
Blank: 8%
None : 24%
Does not know, does not answer: 2%
Gustavo Petro vs. Federico Gutiérrez
Gustavo Petro: 43%
Federico Gutiérrez: 24%
Blank: 8%
None : 23%
Does not know, does not answer: 2%
Gustavo Petro vs. David Barguil
Gustavo Petro: 44%
David Barguil: 19%
Blank: 9%
None : 26%
Does not know, does not answer: 2%
Gustavo Petro vs. Óscar Iván Zuluaga
Gustavo Petro: 42%
Óscar Iván Zuluaga: 25%
Blank: 7%
None: 24%
Does not know, does not answer: 2%
Gustavo Petro vs. Rodolfo Hernández
Gustavo Petro: 40%
Rodolfo Hernández: 31%
Blank: 7%
None : 20%
Does not know, does not answer: 2%
Gustavo Petro vs. Álex Char
Gustavo Petro: 42%
Álex Char: 25%
Blank: 8%
None : 23%
Does not know, does not answer: 2%
Gustavo Petro vs. Ingrid Betancourt
Gustavo Petro: 39%
Ingrid Betancourt: 27%
Blank: 9%
None : 23%
Does not know, does not answer: 2%
Gustavo Petro vs. Juan Manuel Galán
Gustavo Petro: 41%
Juan Manuel Galán: 28%
Blank: 7%
None: 22%
Don’t know, no answer: 2%
See the full survey below.
DOWNLOAD DOC.Survey of the National Consulting Center for Week (PDF)Technical sheet
NATURAL OR LEGAL PERSON WHO IT WAS MADE BY:
National SAP Consulting Center A NATURAL OR LEGAL PERSON WHO COMMITTED IT: Semana Magazine
FUNDING SOURCE: Semana Magazine
UNIVERSE UNDER STUDY: Older men and women 18 years old, residents in urban areas of Colombian municipalities and intending to vote in the next presidential elections As a statistical stratification mechanism, 6 geographic regions were established. cas as follows 1 ANTIOQUIA COFFEE HUB Antioquia, Caldas, Quindío and Risaralda. 2 BOGOTA Bogota. 3 CARIBBEAN Atlantic, Bolívar, Cesar, Córdoba, La Guajira, Magdalena, Sucre, San Andrés and Providencia. 4 CENTER Boyacá, Cundinamarca, Huila and Tolima. 5 PACIFIC Cauca, Chocó, Nariño and Valle del Cauca and 6 SOUTHEAST Arauca, Caquetá, Casanare, Meta, Norte de Santander, Putumayo and Santander.
SAMPLING DESIGN:
Sampling design it is probabilistic, in four stages and stratified with the selection of simple random samples of statistical units in each stage. In the first sampling stage, a selection of municipalities was made within each geographical region (statistical stratum), considering Bogotá, Medellín, Cali, Barranquilla, Cartagena, Bucaramanga, Ibagué, Villavicencio and Cúcuta as municipalities of forced inclusion in the sample of the In the rest of the municipalities in the universe under study, a random selection was made of some of them, a total of 43 municipalities. In the second stage, a random selection of cartographic blocks was made within the selected municipalities, based on the sampling frame. In the third stage, they selected households within the selected cartographic blocks (in each block 4 households were selected) and in the final stage, an adult within the household. The selection of the statistical units was operationalized through the algorithm called “negative coordinate”. The sampling frame used is the National Geostatistical Framework provided by DANE. The sampling frame is the device that allows ordering the field operation and offering a guarantee that the implementation of said operation corresponds to the methodological guidelines established for the investigation. The minimum geographic unit that contains said frame is the cartographic block in the headers of the municipalities in Colombia
SAMPLE SIZE: 2,206 cases in 43 municipalities in all regions of Colombia
MARGIN OF ERROR AND CONFIDENCE LEVEL:
Margin of error in sampling of 2.1% and 95% confidence
TOPICS REFERRED TO:
Voting intentions Consultations and Presidential elections
QUESTIONS ASKED: 26 questions. For further details, please consult the questionnaire (see attached file).NUMBER OF INTERVIEWERS AND SUPERVISION METHOD:
67 interviewers participated in the collection of information. The supervision method was the monitoring of 15 of the cases. The information in the field was carried out with Mobile Capture Devices (which allowed each case to be recorded in audio and to capture the geographical coordinate of the place where it was carried out). FIELD WORK PERIOD: January 26 to February 2, 2022 COLLECTION TECHNIQUE:
Face-to-face survey in households
Note: The National Consulting Center is registered in the Register of Surveyors of the National Electoral Council. This report meets the guidelines of the ISO 20252:2012 standard